Kerala elections 2026: LDF, UDF and NDA turn to caste, religion and community identity to expand vote base

Religion and caste are no longer operating at the margins of Kerala’s politics. They are becoming central to electoral mobilisation in a state long defined by class struggles, land reforms, literacy, welfare and a broadly secular public culture shaped by both the Left and the Congress.This shift is now visible across the political spectrum. Even without major electoral breakthroughs, BJP has altered the terms of political competition, pushing both the CPMled Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) to engage more openly with religious identities, caste blocs and community anxieties. What was once treated as peripheral in Kerala’s public life is now moving closer to the electoral mainstream. Identity Politics Gains Ground“Not just religion, even caste has gained renewed salience for political parties, largely to mobilise votes,” said political scientist G Gopa Kumar.Studies done after the 2021 assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha elections indicate shifts among two key Hindu communities: the Ezhavas, traditionally seen as a strong support base of LDF, and Nairs, sections of whom appear to have moved towards BJP since 2018-19. According to a LoknitiCSDS survey, the share of Ezhava voters going with LDF fell to around 49% in 2016 assembly polls from 64% in 2006, while CPM support among Nairs dropped sharply in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Much of this churn appears to have benefited BJP — the party’s Ezhava vote share rose from 6% to 17% in the same period.“It is time to admit that ‘Hindutvaisation’ has become a major force in Kerala and is now part of the political consciousness across parties. Even the LDF is not exempt,” said political analyst Sunny Kapikad. “In Kerala, Hindutva is often framed as a cultural legacy, not just a religious identity.”A Three-Way ContestThe Dec 2025 local body elections underlined this trend, pointing to a more competitive three-cornered contest in the state. The BJP-led NDA expanded its footprint in key urban pockets — including a breakthrough in Thiruvananthapuram — while also making gains in scattered local bodies.At the same time, Muslim and Christian voters appeared to consolidate behind UDF in several regions, highlighting a parallel religious polarisation in Kerala’s electoral landscape.“Political parties, across ideological divides, are ready to amplify demographic anxieties and identitybased claims for electoral gain,” said sociologist Antony Palakkal. “Forms of communal polarisation that were once marginal are now becoming explicit and central to political debate in Kerala.” Left RecalibratesThe LDF’s response has reflected this changing political terrain. In a significant shift, chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s govt stepped up outreach to Hindu organisations. Through the Travancore Devaswom Board (TDB), it organised the Global Ayyappa Sangamam at Pamba in Sept 2025 to mark the board’s 75th anniversary, projecting Sabarimala as a “divine, traditional and sustainable global pilgrimage centre”.CPM also engaged directly with influential Hindu community organisations such as the Nair Service Society (NSS), Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP Yogam), Kerala Pulaya Maha Sabha (KPMS) and the Malayaraya Mahasabha. Many of these groups had drifted towards the BJP and Congress after the Sabarimala temple-entry controversy.Minority Rhetoric SharpensAt the same time, LDF has sharpened its rhetoric around minority politics. CPM leader A K Balan’s remark that Jamaat-e-Islami could influence the home department if the UDF came to office was widely seen as an attempt to stoke anxieties. IUML leader K M Shaji, in turn, accused CPM of deliberately fuelling Islamophobia, while UDF leaders alleged that the Left was resorting to communal rhetoric to deflect attention from governance issues.The govt has also recalibrated its position on the Sabarimala women’s entry issue, now backing the protection of traditional customs that restrict the entry of women of menstruating age, between 10 and 50 years.The Sabarimala FlashpointYet, LDF’s outreach has not been without complications. The alleged theft of more than 4.5kg of gold from Sabarimala temple, which surfaced in late 2025, handed both BJP and UDF an opportunity to attack the govt and try to consolidate Hindu sentiment. While BJP did so openly, the UDF responded more cautiously, mindful of its minority support base.Even so, political analysts caution against assuming that a broad Hindu consolidation will automatically follow.“All these efforts may just go in vain. The Hindu consolidation may not hold,” said Gopa Kumar. “Nair votes are likely to split between BJP and Congress, while Ezhava votes could divide mainly between the Left and BJP, with a smaller share going to Congress. Yet, this churn is necessary, as the Left knows that even marginal gains among Hindu voters could prove crucial in the upcoming assembly elections.”